The political background and implications behind the arrest of Namal Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka

Sep 10, 2026 at 10:27 AM

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Lanka Leader

Sri Lanka is a country that has attracted the attention of foreign powers throughout history due to its geographical location on the world map. Due to Sri Lanka's location in the Indian Ocean, its proximity to major sea routes, and its regional geopolitical significance, the interest of various powers in Sri Lanka has continued unabated.

Examining Sri Lanka's colonial history, it is clear that through Portuguese, Dutch, and British rule, the country's political, economic, and social structures were greatly influenced. Even after British rule ended, the debate over external influences on Sri Lankan politics has not ceased.

Furthermore, the most severe crisis faced by Sri Lanka after independence was the thirty-year war waged by separatist terrorists. The end of the armed phase of the separatist forces in 2009 was a decisive event in Sri Lankan history.

However, even after the end of the separatist war, issues regarding national security, national unity, political activities of separatism, and foreign interventions have not ended within Sri Lankan politics.

The Question Regarding Namal's Arrest

Now we can turn to our main question.

What is the political background behind the arrest of Mr. Namal Rajapaksa
at this time?

In seeking an answer to this question, one must consider not only the arrest of an individual, but also the current political balance of power, the political influence of the Rajapaksa family, the organizational capacity of the opposition, and the mathematics relevant to upcoming elections.

The Important Signal of the 2024 Presidential Election

In the 2024 Presidential Election, the contest among Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Mr. Sajith Premadasa, and Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe provided several important signals regarding Sri Lanka's political forces.

In particular, examining the results of the seven districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Nuwara Eliya, and Badulla can identify changes in voter behavior that can be manipulated by Western and Indian powers.

Table 1 -- 2024 Presidential Election: 7 Districts Directly Subject to External Powers

District Anura Kumara % Sajith Premadasa %
Dissanayake

Jaffna 54,172 7.29% 242,354 32.60%

Vanni 42,824 9.86% 190,844 43.92%

Batticaloa 38,832 12.19% 139,110 43.66%

Digamadulla 108,971 25.74% 200,384 47.33%

Trincomalee 99,772 20.83% 241,176 50.36%

Nuwara Eliya 210,114 22.17% 403,628 42.58%

Badulla 197,283 34.68% 219,674 38.61%

.

Candidate Total Votes Percentage within
the total of both

Anura Kumara Dissanayake 751,968 31.47%

Sajith Premadasa 1,637,170 68.53%

Total 2,389,138

In these seven districts, Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake secured 751,968 votes, while Mr. Sajith Premadasa secured 1,637,170 votes. Accordingly, when considering these seven districts directly subject to external powers, Mr. Sajith Premadasa was ahead of Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake by 885,202 votes.

What Happened in 2010?

To understand the political behavior of voters in these seven districts directly subject to external powers, it is also important to compare with the results of the 2010 Presidential Election.

In those seven districts, the vote results obtained by Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa and Mr. Sarath Fonseka were as follows.

District Mahinda Rajapaksa % Sarath Fonseka %

Jaffna 44,154 24.75% 113,877 63.84%

Vanni 28,740 27.31% 70,367 66.86%

Batticaloa 55,663 26.27% 146,057 68.93%

Digamadulla 146,912 47.92% 153,105 49.94%

Trincomalee 69,752 43.04% 87,661 54.09%

Nuwara Eliya 151,604 43.77% 180,604 52.14%

Badulla 237,579 53.23% 198,835 44.55%

In these seven districts, Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa received 734,404 votes, and Mr. Sarath Fonseka received 950,506 votes. That is, Mr. Fonseka was ahead by 216,102 votes.

The Changed Balance of Power in 2015

In the 2015 Presidential Election, within these seven districts, Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa received 630,561 votes, while Mr. Maithripala Sirisena received 1,399,213 votes.

Accordingly, Mr. Maithripala Sirisena was ahead of Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa by 768,652 votes.

Comparing these three sets of figures reveals one important fact: namely, in Sri Lanka's presidential elections, the voting behavior in these districts, including the Northern and Eastern areas, has a significant impact on the national balance of power.

The Combined Sajith--Ranil Vote in 2024

In the 2024 Presidential Election, according to first preference votes, Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained 5,634,915 votes, Mr. Sajith Premadasa obtained 4,363,035 votes, and Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe obtained 2,299,767 votes.

When the votes received by the two are added:

Sajith + Ranil = 4,363,035 + 2,299,767 = 6,662,802

This equals 50.03% of the valid votes. The percentage obtained by Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake is 42.31%.

Accordingly, through this data analysis, it is clear that the Western imperialist powers and the Indian High Commission had correctly calculated what should have happened.

In the general election held after the presidential election, the voters in the aforementioned seven districts forgot Mr. Sajith Premadasa and shifted towards Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, according to the second plan of the Western powers and the Indian High Commission - that is, the plan to fulfill their objectives through the National People's Power of Mr. Anura Kumara Dissanayake. If one examines the way events are unfolding at present, it appears that this plan has been successful. As if the citizens of Sri Lanka have not seen the seven highly critical agreements signed with India, the court has also confirmed that the Sri Lankan citizen has no right to see them.

So Why Target Namal Rajapaksa?

In this question, we can distinguish several factors.

First, the Rajapaksa family still represents a significant political symbol and organizational force within Sri Lankan politics.

Second, Namal Rajapaksa is a key political figure representing the next generation of the Rajapaksa family. Therefore, taking legal or political action against him will suppress the nominal representation of the anti-imperialist political current in Sri Lanka, that is, the future politics of the Rajapaksa family.

Third, through this imprisonment, the current government also appears to be attempting to prevent the formation of organizational links among opposition forces.

Is "Catching Thieves" a Political Tool?

The National People's Power government came to power promising the people that it would take strong action against corruption.

Against that background, taking legal action against individuals connected to the Rajapaksa family serves both as a fulfillment of the government's political promise and as a strategy to weaken opposition political forces. The current National People's Power government came to power championing the slogan of arresting those who misused state property to eliminate corruption. However, they were unable to prove any of the charges specifically leveled against the Mahinda Rajapaksa family, and some charges were proven false. Among these, matters such as the dollars sent to Uganda, golden horses, rockets sent to space, and the numbers of cheques allegedly received as bribes from China could not be proven, and as a result, a large number of people who voted for the National People's Power government have become disillusioned. Accordingly, imprisoning the Rajapaksa family members as well as their associates is essential to satisfy the people around the National People's Power. Even more prominently, there is pressure from Tamil separatist organizations. Another important factor is preventing the unity of opposition forces in the face of opposition to the SOFA, ACSA, and ETCA agreements that the National People's Power government is set to sign, endangering Sri Lanka's sovereignty, as well as aligning with NATO, which causes concern for Sri Lanka's friendly states such as Russia and China.

In the face of these circumstances, the task of transforming Sri Lankan society into an American military base, including the demands of the separatist Tamil diaspora to destroy social values, cultural heritage, and antiquities - something no right-wing party in Sri Lanka does - is being diligently carried out.

The overall purpose here is to divert public opposition to these matters by arresting one's opponents.

However, although it is an accepted principle that merely presenting a charge does not make it true, and that an arrest does not determine guilt, the stigma created in society by such actions is not insignificant.

The Political Challenge Ahead

The future political path of Sri Lanka is determined not merely by the arrest of one individual.

How the opposition forces organize against the National People's Power government, to what extent the Rajapaksa family's political influence is rebuilt, how the future relationship between forces such as Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe evolves, and the holding of provincial council elections in areas with large populations manipulable by imperialist powers, including the North-East, will be decisive factors in the future political balance of power.

Therefore, if there is any legal action taken against Namal Rajapaksa, it should be understood not merely as a case against one individual, but as being tied to the potential impact on the future of Sri Lanka's opposition politics and the balance of power.

The Final Question

The real question before the people of Sri Lanka today is not merely "Who will be arrested?"

The more important question is: "Is the law being applied without political bias, or is it being used as a political tool to change the future balance of power in Sri Lanka?" The answer to that question will be determined not by accusations, but by evidence, the law, and the political verdict of the people.

If one comments on the lifespan of the National People's Power government, the fundamental step toward dividing Sri Lanka, that is, its Balkanization, is to hold provincial council elections and offer control of the Northern and Eastern provinces to separatist forces. This will once again turn Sri Lanka into a land where people are divided by nationality and kill each other. Accordingly, after holding the provincial council elections related to the Northern and Eastern provinces, the National People's Power government will no longer be needed by Indian and Western powers. Consequently, efforts will be made to oust the National People's Power government through a color revolution-style struggle.